BIRTH RATE FORECAST WHEN MODELING THE POPULATION GROWTH

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Published: Oct 25, 2018
Keywords:
forecasting demographic processes mathematical models demographic transition population growth

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Дмитрий/Dmitry Александрович/Aleksandrovich Кирьянов/Kiryanov
FBSI "Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies"; Perm State University

Abstract

The paper presents an analytical review of the mathematical models used for the population forecast considering the current understanding of demographic processes in the global world. It is shown that in the context of the global demographic transition and the population hyperbolic growth there is a trend towards lower birth rate and population stabilization. The case study in Perm region describes the population structure statistical data analysis for the period of 2010-2014 and demonstrates the decreasing interaction of fertile women population and the birth rate if to compare with other age groups.

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How to Cite
Кирьянов/Kiryanov Д. А. (2018). BIRTH RATE FORECAST WHEN MODELING THE POPULATION GROWTH. Bulletin of Perm University. Biology, (3), 268–276. Retrieved from https://press.psu.ru/index.php/bio/article/view/1819
Issue
No. 3 (2016): Вестник Пермского университета. Серия «Биология»=Bulletin of Perm University. Biology
Section
Ecology

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Author Biography

Дмитрий/Dmitry Александрович/Aleksandrovich Кирьянов/Kiryanov, FBSI "Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies"; Perm State University

PhD in Technical Sciences, head of the department of mathematical modeling of systems and processes;Associate professor of the Department of human ecology and life safety

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