REGIONAL VARIATIONS OF VOTING FOR «UNITED RUSSIA»: THE ROLE OF REGIONAL HEADS
Keywords:
«United Russia», «party of power», State Duma, electoral research, parliamentary electionsAbstract
According to the results of the 2016 Duma elections, “United Russia” received 54.2% of the vote under the proportional system. In the regional context, the spread of votes was between 35.19% (in the Altai Territory) and 96.29% (in the Chechen Republic). What causes regional disparities in the vote for the United Russia party? This article aims to find an answer to the above question. In this study, the concept of a regional political machine and the thesis about the ability of regional heads to ensure higher electoral results of the "party in power" are tested. Statistical calculations were performed using binary logistic regression. The regression analysis carried out by the author showed that none of the hypotheses was fully confirmed. Of the six regression models, only three were significant. Each new head of the region in the corps of heads of regional branches of the party added 13% to "United Russia" in the Duma elections in 2011 and 2007. In 2016, an increase in the number of governors in the first places of the regional groups of the federal list of candidates of the "party of power" by 1 unit would lead to an increase in the electoral result by 18%.DOI: 10.17072/2218-1067-2021-2-110-119References
Гилев, А., Семенов, А., Шевцова, И. (2017) ‘Политические машины и их водители: электоральное администрирование на местном уровне’, Полития, 3, сс. 62–80. [Gilev, A., Semenov, А., Shevcova, I. (2017) ‘Political machines and their drivers: electoral administration at the local level’ [Politicheskie mashiny i ih voditeli: jelektoral'noe administrirovanie na mestnom urovne], Politeia, 3. рр. 62–80. (In Russ.)].
Голосов, Г., Лихтенштейн, А. (2001) ‘Партия власти и российский институциональный дизайн: теоретический анализ’, Полис. Политические исследования, 1, сс. 6–14. [Golosov, G., Lihtenshtejn, А. (2001) ‘Party of power and Russian institutional design: a theoretical analysis’ [Partija vlasti i rossijskij institucional'nyj dizajn: teoreticheskij analiz], Polis. Politicheskie issledovanija, 1. рр. 6–14. (In Russ.)].
Иванов, В. В. (2008) Партия Путина: история «Единой России». Москва: ОЛМА Медиа Групп, 341 с. [Ivanov, V. V. (2008) Putin's Party: the history of "United Russia" [Partija Putina: istorija «Edinoj Ros-sii»]. Moscow: OLMA Media Group, 341 p. (In Russ.)].
Мухаметов, Р. С. (2020) ‘Кремль и переизбрание губернаторов: факторы поддержки’, Полития, 4, сс. 137–152. [Mukhametov, R. S. (2020) ‘The Kremlin and the re-election of governors: factors of support’ [Kreml' i pereizbranie gubernatorov: faktory podderzhki], Politia, 4. рp. 137–152. (In Russ.)].
Мухаметов, Р. С. (2015) ‘Роль партии «Единая Россия» в консолидации элит на муниципальном уровне’, Ars Administrandi, 1, сс. 85–94. [Mukhametov, R. S. (2015) ‘The Role of the United Russia party in the consolidation of elites at the municipal level’ [Rol' partii «Edinaja Rossija» v konsolidacii jelit na municipal'nom urov-ne], Ars Administrandi, 1. рр. 85–94. (In Russ.)]
Панов, П. В. (2019) ‘Пространственная локализация этнических групп как фактор голосования на выборах в национальных республиках Российской Федерации’, Вестник Пермского федерального исследовательского центра, 2, сс. 53–62. [Panov, P. V. (2019) ‘Territorial localiza-tion of ethnic groups as a voting factor in elections in the national republics of the Russian Federation’ [Prostranstvennaja lokalizacija jetnicheskih grupp kak faktor golosovanija na vyborah v nacional'nyh respublikah Rossijskoj Federacii], Bulletin of the Perm Federal research center, 2. рр. 53–62. (In Russ.)].
Сироткина, Е., Карандашова, С. (2017) ‘Лояльность элит и выборы глав регионов: роль предвыборных конфликтов в ис-ходе голосования’, Полис. Политические исследования, 6, сс. 76–91. [Sirot-kina, E., Karandashova, S. (2017) ‘Loyalty of elites and elections of heads of regions: the role of preelection conflicts in the outcome of voting’ [Lojal'nost' jelit i vybory glav regionov: rol' predvybornyh konfliktov v ishode golosovanija], Polis. Politicheskie issledovanija, 6. рр. 76–91. (In Russ.)].
Туровский, Р. Ф. (2017) ‘Влияние экономики на электоральное поведение в России: работает ли «контракт» власти и обще-ства?’, Полития, 3, сс. 42–61. [Turovsky, R. F. (2017) ‘Influence of the econ-omy on electoral behavior in Russia: does the "contract" of power and society work?’ [Vlijanie jekonomiki na jel-ektoral'noe povedenie v Rossii: rabotaet li «kontrakt» vlasti i obshhestva?], Politia, 3. рp. 42–61. (In Russ.)].
Шкель, С. Н. (2019) ‘Бастионы традиции: этнический фактор и политические ма-шины в регионах России’, Полис. Политические исследования, 1, сс. 49–70. [Shkel, S. N. (2019) ‘Bastions of tradition: ethnic factor and political machines in the regions of Russia’ [Bastiony tradicii: jetnicheskij faktor i politicheskie mashiny v regionah Rossii], Polis. Politicheskie issledovanija, 1. рр. 49–70 (In Russ.)].
Щербак, А. Н., Смирнова, Д. О., Озернова, Е. П., Лепешко, Е. В., Купка, А. и Кали-нин, А. (2017) ‘Холодильник VS. телевизор? Экономическое голосование на выборах в Государственную думу РФ 2016 г.’, Вестник Пермского университета. Серия: Политология, 3, сс. 137–155. [Shherbak, A. N., Smirnova, D. O., Ozernova, E. P., Lepeshko, E. V., Kupka, А., Kalinin, А. (2017) ‘Refrigerator VS. TV? Economic voting in the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation in 2016’ [Holodil'nik VS. televizor? Jekonomicheskoe golosovanie na vyborah v Gosudarstvennuju dumu RF 2016 g.], Bulletin of Perm University. Series: Political Science, 3. рр. 137–155. (In Russ.)].
Boni, S. (2020) ‘Reconciling the State and Diffused Autonomy? Political Brokers in Venezuelan Poder popular’, Latin America Perspectives, 47 (4), pp. 170–189.
Brie, M. (1997) ‘The Political Regime of Moscow – Creation of a New Urban Machine?’, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin fur Sozi-alforschung GmbH (WZB) Reichpietschufer 50. D-10785. Berlin. URL: https://bibliothek.wzb.eu/pdf/1997/p97-002.pdf (accessed on 02.12.2020).
Frye, T. (2019) ‘Hitting Them With Carrots: Voter Intimidation and Vote Buying in Russia’, British Journal of Political Science, 49 (3), рр. 857–881.
Frye, T., Reuter, О. and Szakonyi, D. (2020) ‘Vote Brokers, Clientelist Appeals, and Voter Turnout: Evidence from Russia and Venezuela’, World Politics, 71 (4), рр. 710–746.
Frye, T., Reuter, О. And Szakonyi, D. (2014) ‘Political Machines at Work: Voter Mobilization and Electoral Subversion in the Workplace’, World Politics, 66 (2), рр. 195–228.
Gans-Morse, J., Mazzuca, S. and Nichter, S. (2014) ‘Varieties of Clientelism: Machine Politics during Elections’, American Journal of Political Science, 58 (2), рр. 415–432.
Golosov, G. (2013) ‘Machine Politics: The Con-cept and Its Implications for Post-Soviet Studies’, Demokratizatsiya, 21 (4), рр. 459–480.
Golosov, G. (2014) ‘The territorial genealogies of Russia's political parties and the transferability of political machines’, Post-Soviet Affairs, 30 (6), рр. 464–480.
Golosov, G. and Tkacheva, T. (2018) ‘Let My People Run. Pre-election Resignations of Russia’s Governors, 2013–2015’, Problems of Post-Communism, vol. 65, 4, рр. 243–252.
Goodnow, R., Mose, R. and Smith T. (2014) ‘Ethnicity and electoral manipulation in Russia’, Electoral Studies, 36, рр. 15–27.
Hale, H. (2003) ‘Explaining Machine Politics in Russia's Regions: Economy, Ethnicity, and Legacy’, Post-Soviet Affairs, 19 (3), рр. 228–263.
Hale, H. (2006) Why Not Parties in Russia? Democracy, Federalism, and the State. New York: Cambridge university press.
Hertel-Fernandez, A. (2016) ‘How Employers Recruit Their Workers into Politics And Why Political Scientists Should Care’, Perspectives on Politics, 14 (2), рр. 410–421.
Hidalgo, F. and Nichter, S. (2016) ‘Voter Buying: Shaping the Electorate through Clientelism’, American Journal of Political Science, 60 (2), рр. 436–455.
Holland, A. and Palmer-Rubin, B. (2015) ‘Be-yond the Machine: Clientelist Brokers and Interest Organizations in Latin America’, Comparative Political Studies, 48 (9), рр. 1186–1223.
Larreguy, H. A. (2013) ‘Monitoring Political Brokers: Evidence from Clientelistic Networks in Mexico’, Epsa 2013 Annual General Conference Paper 655. URL: https://economics.mit.edu/files/8456/ (ac-cessed on 02.12.2020).
Levy, J. (2008) ‘Case Studies: Types, Designs, and Logics of Inference’, Conflict Man-agement and Peace Science, 25, рр. 1–18.
Magaloni, B. (2006) Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic party survival and its demise in Mexico. Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press.
Minaeva, E. and Panov, Р. (2020) ‘Localization of Ethnic Groups in the Regions as a Factor in Cross-Regional Variations in Vot-ing for United Russia’, Russian Politics, 5, рр. 131–153.
Panov, P. and Ross, С. (2019) ‘Volatility in Electoral Support for United Russia: Cross-Regional Variations in Putin’s Electoral Authoritarian Regime’, Europe-Asia Studies, 71 (2), рр. 268–289.
Panov, P. and Ross, С. (2018) ‘The dynamic nationalisation of voting for United Russia: the stability / instability of regional devi-ations from national results’, East Euro-pean Politics, 34 (1), рр. 97–114.
Panov, P. and Ross, С. (2013) ‘Sub-National Elections in Russia: Variations in United Russia's Domination of Regional Assemblies’, Europe Asia Studies, 65 (4), рр. 737–752.
Reisinger, W. and Moraski, В. (2013) Russia’s Governors under Presidential Control, 2005–2012: A Survival Analysis of Guber-natorial Tenures. URL: https://ir.uiowa.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1102&context=polisci_pubs (ac-cessed on 02.12.2020).
Reuter, О. (2013) ‘Regional Patrons and Hegemonic Party Electoral Performance in Russia’, Post-Soviet Affairs, 29 (2), рр. 101–135.
Reuter, O. (2010) ‘The Politics of Dominant Party Formation: United Russia and Russia’s Governors’, Europe-Asia Studies, 62 (2), рр. 293–327.
Reuter, O. and Remington, T. (2009) ‘Dominant Party Regimes and the Commitment Problem: The Case of United Russia’, Comparative political studies, 42 (4), рр. 501–526.
Reuter, O. and Robertson, G. (2012) ‘Subnational Appointments in Authoritarian Regimes: Evidence from Russian Gubernatorial Appointments’, Journal of Politics, 74 (2), рр. 1023–1037.
Rochlitz, M. (2016) ‘Political Loyalty vs Economic Performance: Evidence from Machine Politics in Russia’s Regions’, Higher School of Economics Working Papers, Series: Political Science, WP BRP 34/PS/2016. URL: https://wp.hse.ru/data/2016/05/10/1129315894/34PS2016.pdf (accessed on 01.03.2020).
Rosenfeld, B. (2018) ‘The Popularity Costs of Economic Crisis under Electoral Authoritarianism: Evidence from Russia’, American Journal of Political Science, 62 (2), рр. 382–397.
Slater, D. (2010) Ordering Power: Contentious Politics and Authoritarian Leviathans in Southeast Asia. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Stokes, S. (2005) ‘Perverse Accountability: A Formal Model of Machine Politics with Evidence from Argentina’, American Political Science Review, 99, 3, рр. 315–325.
Tkacheva, T. and Golosov, G. (2019) ‘United Russia’s Primaries and the Strength of Political Machines in the Regions of Russia: Evidence from the 2016 Duma Elections’, Europe-Asia Studies, 71 (5), рр. 824–839.
Prasetyo, W. (2019) ‘Political Machine and Challenger Victory in a Javanese Village Chief Election’, PCD Journal, 7 (2), рр. 317–348.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
The author grants the Publisher of the journal (Perm State University) the right to use their article in the journal, as well as to include the text of the abstract, the full text of the article and information about authors in the "Russian Science Citation Index" (RSCI).
The author agrees to the processing of personal data.
The right to use the journal as a whole belongs to the Publisher and acts indefinitely on the territory of the Russian Federation and beyond in accordance with cl. 1260 of the Russian Federation Civil Code.
There is no author's fee paid for providing the above rights by the author.
The author of the article included in the journal retains the exclusive right to it, regardless of the Publisher's right to use the journal as a whole:
a. The authors retain their copyrights to the article and transfer the right of the first publication along with the article to the journal, while also licensing it on the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which allows others to distribute this article with the obligatory indication of authorship of the article and reference to the original publication in this journal.
b. The authors retain the right to enter into separate, additional contractual agreements for the non-exclusive dissemination of the version of the text published by this journal (for example, post it in a university archive or publish it in a book), with reference to the original publication in this journal.
c. d. Authors are allowed to post their text on the Internet (for example, in a university archive or on their personal website) before and during the review process by this journal, as this can lead to a fruitful discussion and to higher number of the references to this published work (Please refer to The Effect of Open Access).
Submission of an article by the author implies that they agree for it to be used by the Publisher on the above conditions and to be included in the RSCI system. It also implicates that the author is aware of the terms of its use. The information about the author sent to the Publisher, including by e-mail, is also considered as such consent.
The editorial board posts the full text of the article on the Perm State University site: http://www.psu.ru and in the OJS system at http://press.psu.ru
The publication fee is not collected and fees are not paid. The author's copy is sent to the author to the address provided by them.
