ASSESSMENT OF THE REPRODUCIBILITY BY REGIONAL METEOROLOGICAL MODELS (WRFARW) OF AN URBAN HEAT ISLAND IN THE ARCTIC TOWN (APATITY) UNDER ‘WARM WINTER’ CONDITIONS

Abstract

Nowadays, the Arctic is one of the regions of the world most affected by the global climate change. Consequently,the study of microclimatic conditions of Arctic cities and towns, where resides most of the population, becomes a scientific problemof great importance, while being compounded by the lack of verified meteorological data. This research deals with an assessment of a‘warm winter’ urban heat island (UHI) in the town of Apatity using a regional meteorological model. The UHI was first identified byfield observation data from 29 to 31 of January 2024, recorded on iButton temperature loggers. The model experiment for the sameperiod was conducted using the WRF-ARW model. The results demonstrate that the model is able to reproduce the spatial structure ofthe ‘warm winter’ Apatity UHI. Its average intensity was calculated to be 1.2 ℃. Field observation data identified the UHI with theaverage intensity of 0.6 ℃. The difference between the simulated and observed UHIs is within the measurement accuracy. The bestcorrelation between the model estimation and temperature loggers’ data is observed in the case of the model accurately representingthe cloud cover. Therefore, in ‘warm winter’ conditions the accuracy of urban heat island forecasting depends on the model performingthe cloud cover calculations.