GEODEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN FINLAND IN THE 21ST CENTURY

Abstract

In the 2010s, the geodemographic development of Finland entered a new stage, the main features of which were a sharp increase in immigration (both from Europe and from the countries of Asia and Africa) and a decrease in natural growth with a transition to natural decline. In times of crisis, taking into account the country’s territorial scale and low population density, the problem of uneven demographic development becomes particularly relevant. The study aims to characterize the spatial heterogeneity of demographic development in Finland during the crisis. Research methods employed include statistical method (as the major one), cartographic, descriptive methods, as well as typology and zoning. The lower administrative-territorial units (ATU) were typologized based on the criteria of the general demographic trend (population growth or decline) and the ratio between its factors – natural and migration growth in 2016–2022; the ratio between internal and international migration was also taken into account. Two types, four subtypes, and eleven typological groups have been identified. Zoning was carried out using a grid of first-level ATU – regions. The criteria used were components of population dynamics, life expectancy, and features of the age composition. The districts were identified using cluster analysis, which made it possible to distinguish 4 meso-districts and 11 districts. In the context of the demographic crisis and increasing migration, the concentric trends of geodemographic transformation and the polar features of the geodemographic situation have increased qualitatively. Of the four meso-districts, only two maintain a progressive demographic trend. The main pole of Finland's demographic growth is designated as the ‘southern crescent’, connecting the country's largest urban agglomerations, with the dominance of the capital region. The geographical location of the demographically prosperous parts of the country contributes to the ‘pulling’ of the population toward the sea coast, especially the southern coast. A group of minor growth poles has been identified – Oulu, Kuopio, Jyväskylä, and others. The rest of the territory is losing population, with the decline most pronounced in eastern Finland. The democenter is steadily shifting in a southerly direction with some westerly component