ASSESSMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC CLIMATE RISKS AND THEIR IMPACT THE ECONOMY OF ALTAI KRAI

Abstract

The article presents an assessment of atmospheric climate risks and provides an analysis of their impact on economic sectors of Altai Krai. Basing on the Roshydromet data (1966–2020), the authors calculated the frequency of occurrence of hazardous and unfavorable phenomena causing climate risks and determined statistically significant (according to Student’s t-test) trends in their changes. The study revealed a significant decrease in the number of days with very strong and hurricane winds. On the contrary, the number of days with dry winds and extreme heat was found to increase. Due to the longer duration of the warm period, a trend formed for thunderstorms and hail to occur more often. In the east of the region, the frequency of fog and hoarfrost occurrences increased. Climate risks with maximal intensity and manifestation (very strong winds, abnormally hot weather, extreme fire danger, hot winds, hurricanes, severe frost, and abnormally cold weather) are responsible for the greatest threat to the economy, population, and natural environment of Altai Krai. The highest probability of atmospheric climate risks occurrence is noted at the Biysk-Zonalnaya WS, both in the warm and cold periods. Abnormally cold weather, hail, fog, sleet, and freezing rain are most common for this territory. The lowest probability of risks occurrence is at the Kamen-on-Obi WS. Agriculture, as the main branch of specialization of Altai Krai, is most susceptible to the risks. Severe droughts and hot winds, as well as prolonged heat, wind, natural fires, hail, etc. considerably reduce the germination and productivity of agricultural crops; when combined, these factors can lead to crop failure. In general, a complex of dangerous and unfavorable weather events affects all sectors of the economy, resulting in large financial costs spent on their adaptation to climate change.