TRANSFORMATION OF THE ETHNIC FACTOR’S INFLUENCE ON THE RESULTS OF FEDERAL ELECTIONS (2003–2021) IN EASTERN SIBERIA

Abstract

Eastern Siberia, which is considered by the author as comprising the republics of Buryatia, Sakha (Yakutia), Tyva
and Khakassia, the Transbaikal and Krasnoyarsk territories, the Irkutsk region, is characterized by a mosaic ethnic composition. There
are distinguished large nations, living mainly in the republics, and small nations, residing in small areas in different territories of the
macro region. The former, due to their large numbers, are able to influence election results, which is expressed in high turnout and
political preferences oriented toward support for the ‘party in power’ and its leader – the current president. However, in the last presidential election (2018) and State Duma election (2021), we noted a decrease in the close relationship between the share of indigenous
peoples and turnout as well as voting for the United Russia and Vladimir Putin.

This article aims to analyze the dynamics of turnout in general elections to the State Duma from 2003 to 2016 in comparison
with the last election campaign of 2021 and presidential elections in 2012–2018 as well as the dynamics of the number of votes for the
parties and the presidential candidates (Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zhirinovsky). The research materials included the 2020 AllRussian Population Census, actually conducted in 2021, and the GAS-Elections database of the Central Election Commission of the
Russian Federation. The study applied cartographic and statistical methods; a special method of correlation analysis was used to establish the closeness of the relationship between the indicators.
An analysis of turnout dynamics showed a decrease in turnout at the 2021 elections to the State Duma compared to the 2003–
2016 average, as well as at the 2018 presidential elections compared to the 2004–2012 level. The latest election campaign to the State
Duma demonstrated an increase in support for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and a decrease in the ratings of the
United Russia and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia in Eastern Siberia. In the presidential elections, there is noted a positive
trend in votes for Vladimir Putin in constituent entities of the Russian Federation with predominantly Russian population and its decline
in some constituent entities created according to the national-ethnic principle (the Republic of Sakha) as well as territories formed
based on this principle (Aginsky Buryatsky District of the Transbaikal Territory), etc.