MODELING FACTORS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM (THE ECONOMIC-INSTITUTIONAL ASPECT)

Abstract

The article is devoted to the issues of sustainable development of tourism. The relevance of the study is
due to the need to explore various aspects of the process with the use of modern approaches and methods. Sustainable
development of tourism is usually considered at four main levels: natural-geographical, economic-institutional, sociocultural, and spiritual. The article focuses on the economic-institutional aspect of sustainable tourism. The purpose of the
study is to model factors that enhance the efficiency of realizing the tourism-recreational potential in the regions of Russia. To achieve this goal, economic and statistical analysis, a clustering method based on the k-means algorithm, DEA (Data
Envelopment Analysis), and regression analysis were used. At the first stage, the level of the regions’ tourist-recreational
potential was calculated, the structure of the potential was defined. Additionally, the features of the tourism-recreational
potential realization in the context of tourist macro-territories were analyzed. At the second stage, all regions of the Russian Federation were divided into 4 clusters based on the similarity of prerequisites for tourism development. At the third
stage, using the DEA method, an integral indicator of the effectiveness of the tourism-recreational potential was calculated. In addition, for each constituent entity assessed, reference regions were identified, and recommendations were given
for increasing the volume of services sold by tourism industry enterprises in order to achieve efficiency indicator equal
to 1. At the fourth stage, a regression model was built in order to determine the influence that the components of the
tourism-recreational potential have on the value that characterizes the economic result of tourism development in the
regions. It has been found that only two components of the potential have a positive impact on overall performance –
these are socio-economic factors and the tourism-recreational infrastructure and employment in the tourism sector. Thus,
knowing what influence is exerted by the factors of the potential, it is possible to significantly increase economic effects
from the development of tourism activities, for example, by adopting state and regional support measures.