Geoecological zoning of the Norilsk industrial region to manage territorial development risks

Original Paper

Abstract

Relevance and problem formulation. Norilsk is the largest city in the Arctic, located in a permafrost zone. Despite this unique feature, the city's territory is heterogeneous in its geological and geographical conditions, creating the potential for unfavorable engineering and geological processes, which is important to consider when developing new sites within the city district. Therefore, this paper examines environmental factors that determine the vulnerability of the Norilsk industrial district to development in a warming climate. Materials and Methods. Based on the analysis of published and archived materials, as well as remote sensing data, information on the factors determining the denudation and environmental protection potential of the territory has been summarized: morphometric and lithological-petrographic characteristics, permafrost conditions, as well as features of the soil and vegetation cover. The Results of the analysis have been systematized in cartographic form (a map of the territory’s vulnerability to development has been compiled). In developing the vulnerability map, all initial data was digitized and converted to raster format. Based on pixel values (30x30 m resolution), the territory was classified into four vulnerability categories and assigned corresponding scores. The integrated vulnerability index was determined as the sum of scores for all factors considered. It was shown that the combination of diverse factors results in a mosaic structure of the territory's vulnerability to external influences. This circumstance requires a differentiated approach to the economic development of the territory, the first stage of which should be its specialized zoning to assess geoecological constraints. Within the Norilsk urban district, four types of territories have been identified, ranked by their vulnerability to development (from minimal to maximal). The least vulnerable areas, classified as Category I, are located within trap massifs. Areas classified as Categories III and IV are classified as vulnerable and very vulnerable. They are primarily located on lake and river terraces. Given development plans within these areas, it is necessary to develop a system of indicators for monitoring the state of cryogenic geosystems under conditions of anthropogenic transformation.