Время выбирать: манипулирование электоральными циклами в современных авторитарных режимах

Маргарита Завадская/ Margarita Zavadskaja

Аннотация


В статье рассматривается вопрос специфики электоральных циклов в современных авторитарных режимах в зависимости от типа институционального дизайна (персоналистские, военные, однопартийные). Цель статьи - обращение к проблеме эндогенности времени выборов в различных авторитарных режимах, тестирование эффектов времени выборов на частоту конфликтных инцидентов как в отношении граждан (угроза снизу), так и элит (угроза сверху), выражающихся в частоте антиправительственных протестных акций и репрессий со стороны государства. Опираясь на посылку об информационной асимметрии, также известную как «дилемма диктатора», в статье мы представили количественный анализ 64 электоральных авторитарных режимов с 1990 по 2011 гг.


DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17072/2218-1067-2015-4-5-28


Ключевые слова


электоральный цикл; выборы; типы авторитарных режимов; проблема эндогенности

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Литература


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