MODELING FACTORS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM (THE ECONOMIC-INSTITUTIONAL ASPECT)

Abstract

The article is devoted to the issues of sustainable development of tourism. The relevance of the study isdue to the need to explore various aspects of the process with the use of modern approaches and methods. Sustainabledevelopment of tourism is usually considered at four main levels: natural-geographical, economic-institutional, sociocultural, and spiritual. The article focuses on the economic-institutional aspect of sustainable tourism. The purpose of thestudy is to model factors that enhance the efficiency of realizing the tourism-recreational potential in the regions of Russia. To achieve this goal, economic and statistical analysis, a clustering method based on the k-means algorithm, DEA (DataEnvelopment Analysis), and regression analysis were used. At the first stage, the level of the regions’ tourist-recreationalpotential was calculated, the structure of the potential was defined. Additionally, the features of the tourism-recreationalpotential realization in the context of tourist macro-territories were analyzed. At the second stage, all regions of the Russian Federation were divided into 4 clusters based on the similarity of prerequisites for tourism development. At the thirdstage, using the DEA method, an integral indicator of the effectiveness of the tourism-recreational potential was calculated. In addition, for each constituent entity assessed, reference regions were identified, and recommendations were givenfor increasing the volume of services sold by tourism industry enterprises in order to achieve efficiency indicator equalto 1. At the fourth stage, a regression model was built in order to determine the influence that the components of thetourism-recreational potential have on the value that characterizes the economic result of tourism development in theregions. It has been found that only two components of the potential have a positive impact on overall performance –these are socio-economic factors and the tourism-recreational infrastructure and employment in the tourism sector. Thus,knowing what influence is exerted by the factors of the potential, it is possible to significantly increase economic effectsfrom the development of tourism activities, for example, by adopting state and regional support measures.