THE CONSTITUTIONAL STATUS AND ROLE OF THE PRESIDENT OF KAZAKHSTAN IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS: “A NEW MILESTONE IN POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT” OR THE PRESERVATION OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL?

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17072/2218-1067-2025-2-59-70

Keywords:

Kazakhstan, president, constitution, form of government, Leader of the nation, political institutions, political process, dominant party

Abstract

In 2019–2023, a series of reforms were implemented in Kazakhstan, affecting the highest bodies of state power, including the presidency. This raises several research questions: Can the political situation in Kazakhstan (2019–2022) be characterized as dual power or tandem? What led to the tandem’s collapse? Have the president’s constitutional status and powers changed? Has the president’s role in the political process shifted? Can we speak of a transformation in the model of the presidency?  Objective: to identify changes in the presidential model in Kazakhstan (2019–2023) based on analysis of the formal and actual powers of the president and the First President – Leader of the Nation (Elbasy). Results: The form-of-government index remained stable (+5). According to the M.S. Shugart–J. Carey methodology, the form of government remained in the same sector. The dominant-party system persisted, evidenced by a slight rise in the effective number of parliamentary parties and a significant increase in the disproportionality index. The president’s full control over the government and parliament was maintained. Despite reforms, the previous presidential model was preserved: strong institutionalization of the presidency, broad formal powers, low political competitiveness, a dominant party under presidential control, and a compliant parliament. The key change was the removal of the Leader of the Nation institution from the political system.  

Author Biography

Nikolai Borisov, Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences, Russian State University for the Humanities, Moscow, Russia.

Dr. Sci. (Political Sciences), Head of the Department of Theoretical Political Science, the Faculty of Political Science,

References

Антонов, А. В., Павлов, Н. А. (2024) ‘Конституционные реформы 2020-х годов в Киргизии и Казахстане’, Журнал Конституционного правосудия, 4, сс. 20–30. [Antonov, A. V., Pavlov, N. A. (2024) ‘Constitutional reforms in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan in the 2020s’ [Konstitutsionnye reformy 2020-kh godov v Kirgizii i Kazakhstane], Journal of Constitutional Justice, no 4, pp. 20–30. (In Russ.)]. DOI: 10.18572/2072-4144-2024-4-20-30. EDN: HMRVDW

Балагуров, А. М. (2022) ‘Особенности конституционных реформ Казахстана 2022 года’, Актуальные исследования, 50 (2), сс. 38–41. [Balagurov, A. M. (2022) ‘Features of the constitutional reform of Kazakhstan in 2022’ [Osobennosti konstitutsionnykh reform Kazakhstana 2022 goda], Current research, 50 (2), pp. 38–41. (In Russ.)].

Борисов, Н. А. (2018) Президентство на постсоветском пространстве: процессы генезиса и трансформаций. Москва: РГГУ. [Borisov, N. A. (2018) Presidency in the post-Soviet space: genesis and transformations processes [Prezidentstvo na postsovetskom prostranstve: protsessy genezisa i transformatsii], Moscow: RGGU. (In Russ.)]. EDN: ORXATM

Борисов, Н. А. (2022) ‘Экс-президенты государств постсоветского пространства: правовой статус и политическая практика’, Вестник РГГУ. Серия: Политология. История. Международные отношения, 3, сс. 60–92. [Borisov, N. A. (2022) ‘Ex-presidents of the post-Soviet states: legal status and political practice’ [Eks-prezidenty gosudarstv postsovetskogo prostranstva: pravovoi status i politicheskaya praktika], RSUH/RGGU Bulletin, series “Political Science. History. International Relations”, 3, pp. 60–92. (In Russ.)]. DOI: 10.28995/2073-6339-2022-3-60-92.

Габдуллин, Б. (2024) «Қаңтар-22»: неудавшийся госпереворот и пробуждение нации. Алматы: Жибек жолы. [Gabdulin, B. (2024) January-22: The failed coup and the awakening of the nation [“Kantar-22”: neudavshiisya gosperevorot i probuzhdenie natsii], Almaty: Zhibek Zholy. (In Russ.)].

Зазнаев, О. И. (2006) Полупрезидентская система: теоретические и прикладные аспекты. Казань: Казанский гос. ун-т. [Zaznaev, O. I. (2006) Semi-presidential system: theoretical and applied aspects [Poluprezidentskaya sistema: teoreticheskie i prikladnye aspekty], Kazan: Kazan State University. (In Russ.)].

Малиновский, В. А. (2024) ‘Президентская форма правления Республики Казахстан в условиях конституционных реформ’, Конституционное и муниципальное право, 2, сс. 61–69. [Malinovsky, V.A. (2024) ‘Presidential form of governance in the republic of Kazakhstan in the context of constitutional reforms’, Constitutional and municipal law, 2, pp. 61–69. (In Russ.)]. DOI: 10.18572/1812-3767-2024-2-61-69. EDN: TGWYVL

Мансуров, Т. З. (2022) ‘Политические протесты 2022 года в Казахстане: специфика, динамика и механизмы урегулирования’, PolitBook, 2, сс. 6–34. [Mansurov, T. Z. (2022) ‘Political protests of 2022 in Kazakhstan: specificity, dynamics and mechanisms of settlement’, PolitBook, 2, pp. 6–34. (In Russ.)].

Назарбаев, Н. А. (2024) Моя жизнь: от зависимости к свободе. Москва: Эксмо. [Nazarbayev, N. A. (2024) My life: from dependence to freedom [Moya zhizn’: ot zavisimosti k svobode], Moscow: Eksmo. (In Russ.)].

Окумбеков, Р. С. (2022) ‘Трансформация политического режима в Казахстане’, Социально-политические науки, 2, сс. 27–32. [Okumbekov, R. S. (2022) ‘Transformation of the political regime in Kazakhstan’ [Transformatsiya politicheskogo rezhima v Kazakhstane], Socio-political Sciences, 2, pp. 27–32. (In Russ.)]. DOI: 10.33693/2223-0092-2022-12-2-27-32. EDN: FBWGXU

Сысоева, Р. В. (2023) ‘Январские события 2022 г. и миротворческая операция ОДКБ в Казахстане’, Вестник Российского университета дружбы народов, серия: Международные отношения, 2, сс. 241–252. [Sysoeva, R. V. (2023) ‘2022 January events and CSTO peacekeeping mission in Kazakhstan’ [Yanvarskie sobytiya 2022 g. i mirotvorcheskaya operatsiya ODKB v Kazakhstane], Vestnik RUDN, International Relations, 2, pp. 241–252. In Russ.)]. DOI: 10.22363/2313-0660-2023-23-2-241-252. EDN: JISOMY

Усова, В. А. (2024) ‘Смешанная несвязанная избирательная система – оптимальный выбор при авторитаризме? (Кросснациональное сравнительное исследование)’, Полития, 1, сс. 98–113. [Usova, V. A. (2024) ‘Mixed parallel electoral system – optimal choice under authoritarianism? (Cross-national comparative stu¬dy)’ [Smeshannaya nesvyazannaya izbiratel’naya sistema – optimal’nyi vybor pri avtoritarizme? (Krossnatsional’noe sravnitel’noe issledovanie)], Poiteia, 1, pp. 98–113. In Russ.)]. DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2024-112-1-98-113. EDN: ZTIHLL

Шаблинский, И. Г. (2023) ‘Особенности установления конституционных основ постсоветских авторитарных режимов (Азербайджан, Беларусь, Казахстан, Таджикистан, Узбекистан, Туркменистан)’, Публичное право сегодня, 4, сс. 90–112. [Shablinsky, I. G. (2023) ‘Features of the establishment of the constitutional foundations of post-Soviet authoritarian regimes (Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan)’, Public Law Today, 4, pp. 90–112. In Russ.)].

Abishev, G., Kurmanov, B., and Sabitov, Z. (2024) ‘Authoritarian succession, rules, and conflicts: Tokayev’s gambit and Kazakhstan’s bloody January of 2022 (Qandy Qantar)’, Post-Soviet Affairs, 6, pp. 429–451, DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2024.2377929.

Isaacs, R. (2022) Political opposition in authoritarianism: Exit, voice and loyalty in Kazakhstan, Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-06536-1.

Krouwel, А. (2003) ‘Measuring presidentialism of Central and East European countries’, Working Papers Political Science, 2, Amsterdam: Vrije Universiteit.

Kudaibergenova, D., Laruelle, M. (2022) ‘Making sense of the January 2022 protests in Kazakhstan: Failing legitimacy, culture of protests, and elite readjustments’, Post-Soviet Affairs, 38 (26), pp. 1–19. DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2022.2077060.

Laakso, M., Taagepera, R. (1979) ‘‘Effective’ number of parties: a measure with application to West Europe’, Comparative Political Studies, 12 (1), pp. 3–27. DOI: 10.1177/001041407901200101.

Libman, A., Davidzon, I. (2023) ‘Military intervention as a spectacle? Authoritarian regionalism and protests in Kazakhstan’, International Affairs, 99 (3), pp. 1293–1312. DOI: 10.1093/ia/iiad093. EDN: PBVYJV

Rae, D. (1971) The political consequences of electoral laws, New Haven: Yale University Press.

Shugart, M. S., Carey, J. M. (1992) Presidents and assemblies: constitutional design and electoral dynamics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. DOI: 10.1017/CBO9781139173988

Troitskiy, E. F., Pogorelskaya, A. M., Yun, S. M., Dunaeva, D. O., Blaginin, A. L. (2024) ‘Kazakhstan’s January 2022 crisis: representations by national experts via social media’, Journal of Eurasian Studies, 15 (2), pp. 227–238. DOI: 10.1177/1879366523121257

Published

2025-07-07

How to Cite

Borisov Н. А. (2025). THE CONSTITUTIONAL STATUS AND ROLE OF THE PRESIDENT OF KAZAKHSTAN IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS: “A NEW MILESTONE IN POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT” OR THE PRESERVATION OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL?. Bulletin of Perm University. Political Science, 19(2), 59–70. https://doi.org/10.17072/2218-1067-2025-2-59-70

Issue

Section

Political institutions, processes, technologies