SPATIAL FACTOR IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF CONFLICTOGENICITY IN THE POSTSOVIET SPACE (1992-2022)

Abstract

Given that socio-political processes develop not only in time but also in space, their relative spatial configuration caninfluence their genesis and further evolution, which is manifested in the existence of neighborhood effect. Similar values of a phenomenon are clustered: the characteristics of the phenomenon in one location are determined not only by the qualities of this location itself but also by the characteristics of the same phenomenon in neighboring locations. The purpose of this study is to determine whetherneighborhood effect has influenced the spread of conflictogenicity in the post-Soviet space in 1992–2022 or, in other words, whetherconflictogenicity and its changes in this macroregion are clustered phenomena. The authors of this research define conflictogenicity asa cumulative indicator equal to the sum of conflictness scores of a unit of analysis (first-order administrative units of the former USSRrepublics) assigned to this unit from 1992 to 2022 by the Conflict Barometer project implemented by Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research. Conflictogenicity changes are defined as the difference between conflictogenicity scores assigned to administrative units in 1992–1999 and in 2000–2022. To achieve the purpose of the research, the authors use global and local Moran’s indicesof spatial and differential spatio-temporal autocorrelation. The results of the study demonstrate that during the given period in the postSoviet space both conflictogenicity and conflictogenicity changes are relatively clustered phenomena. The most robust autocorrelationrelationships are registered for administrative units with the highest conflict rates and regions where conflictogenicity changes turnedout to be very significant. Moreover, these two groups of territorial units are almost identical to each other: the greatest conflictogenicitychanges have been noted in local clusters with high conflictogenicity levels. Thus, during the post-bipolar period spatial patterns havebeen visible in the post-Soviet space both in the distribution and in the evolution of conflicts.