CHANGES IN THE MAIN CLIMATIC INDICATORS IN THE FOOTHILL ZONE OF THE NORTH CAUCASUS OVER THE PERIOD 1961–2022

Abstract

The object of the study is the North Caucasus region, rich in varied natural landscapes and characterized by climatic diversity. The study aims to analyze changes in the temperature and precipitation regimes in the foothill zone of the region. According to the data of 6 weather stations: Buynaksk, Vladikavkaz, Kislovodsk, Nalchik, Stavropol, and Cherkessk, we carried out an analysis of the temperature regime for the period 1961–2022, which showed that the average annual temperatures in the foothill zone of the North Caucasus in this period were positive and fluctuated from 8.3°С at the Kislovodsk weather station to 10.6°С at the Buynaksk weather station. At the beginning of the 21st century (2001–2022), the average annual air temperature increased and amounted to 9.2°С at the Kislovodsk weather station and 11.6°С at the Buynaksk weather station, which is statistically significantly higher than in the period 1961–2000, when the average annual temperature was 7.8°C and 10.0°C, respectively. Average annual temperature anomalies were calculated for the entire observation period. The largest deviation from the norm was recorded in 2010, due to the high anomaly in summer (+3.7°C). To assess the trend in the temperature regime changes, linear trends were constructed for the entire period of 1961–2022 and two sub-periods. The analysis showed that in the period 1961–2022, exclusively positive trends were observed, while in the sub-periods, negative trends in temperature change were also evident, where March was especially prominent, with negative values of the linear trend at all the stations in the foothill zone at the beginning of the present century. An analysis of seasonal and annual precipitation for the period 1961–2022 showed that, on average, in the foothill zone of the North Caucasus region, the long-term annual precipitation amounted to 637 mm. The calculation of linear trends in annual precipitation totals showed that the change in the precipitation regime was not uniform, there were both positive and negative trends, mostly statistically insignificant.