COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICS OF INBOUND AND DOMESTIC TOURIST FLOWS IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES IN 2020–2021

Abstract

The global transformation of tourist flows that occurred in 2020–2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic requires a more detailed study through the prism of the geography of tourism. The main indicator of the tourist flow dynamics used in this study is tourist arrivals according to hotel statistics. The indicator ‘tourist flow recovery index’ (TFRI) is proposed, calculated on the basis of monthly data on inbound and domestic tourist flows for 2019–2021. The calculation results are presented for all major European countries in the form of a table with a color scale. This method allows one to assess the degree of the tourist flow recovery, to carry out periodization, and also to compare different European countries with each other. There have been distinguished 6 stages of reduction and restoration of tourist flow: the beginning of the pandemic, the first general lockdown, the first restoration of the tourist flow, the second lockdown, the second restoration of the tourist flow, and the Omicron wave. After the first general lockdown, in the face of fairly strict restrictions on entry and exit from the country, the inbound tourist flow recovered weakly and for a short time. The volume of domestic tourist flow in many countries during the recovery periods corresponded to or even exceeded the level of 2019. The second lockdown, announced in most European countries, led to a second collapse in the inbound tourist flow, but the domestic tourist flow remained, albeit to a lesser extent. The second recovery took place against the backdrop of mass vaccinations and the spread of the Delta strain, which delayed the easing of restrictions. The Omicron wave did not lead to a new mass lockdown, but reduced the pace of the tourist flow recovery. The recovery of the inbound tourist flow went faster in the microstates, in Turkey, Albania and Kosovo, of the domestic tourist flow – in the small countries of Europe with a high share of tourism in their GDP. An analysis of the relationship between the TFRI and the stringency index (SI) made it possible to identify groups of countries where restrictions did not have a direct impact on the reduction in tourist flow. Possible reasons for their deviation from the general trend are described.