DEMOGRAPHIC STABILITY OF RURAL SETTLEMENTS OF THE KURSK REGION

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to identify differences in the demographic stability of rural settlements (RS) in the Kursk Region depending on their position in relation to the relief and to river and road networks. Other factors influencing the demographic stability of RS were not considered in detail in the study. All rural settlements of the Kursk Region (2,773 villages) were taken as the object of the study. The population dynamics of the RS was estimated based on the materials of the All-Russian Population Censuses of 2002, 2010, and 2021. The methods used in the work were statistical, cartographic methods, analysis of maps and space images, methods of typology and demographic forecasting. The analysis of the RS based on their position in the relief and in relation to the transport network led to the identification of 4 topogenetic types of RS: valley-ravine, watershed, roadside, and mixed settlements (the latter are related to both rivers and roads). The study has revealed a significant spatial differentiation of RS with different demographic dynamics. The most vulnerable RS are those located on watersheds (25% of them are classified as “uninhabited”), near railways outside transport hubs, and in small river valleys far from major transport routes. The least vulnerable settlements that demonstrate growth are those located near polyhighways as well as near main rivers within a five-kilometer zone of influence of the most important motor roads. In the foreseeable future, the designated trend will continue in the Kursk Region: the dependence of demographic stability on the topographic and transport position of rural settlements will remain noticeable, but the rate of decline in the number of settlements will slow down.