MODERN CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FOREST-STEPPE ZONE OF THE RUSSIAN PLAIN

Abstract

The study aims to statistically assess the ongoing climate changes in the central and southern parts of theforest-steppe zone of the Russian Plain, specifically in the Voronezh region.The author conducted a climatic-statistical analysis of the average annual, seasonal, and monthly norms of temperature and precipitation, their interannual variability, and trend characteristics. Data were sourced from two representative weather stations – Voronezh and Kamennaya Steppe, for two consecutive 30-year periods: 1961–1990 (base climate)and 1991–2020 (modern climate), as well as for the extended period of 1961–2023.The study showed significant warming observed at both stations from 1961 to 2023 (Voronezh: by 3.1°C, Kamennaya Steppe: by 2.8°C). In contrast, annual precipitation rates remained relatively unchanged (Voronezh: 585 mm,Kamennaya Steppe: 512 mm). The paper provides various statistical indicators numerically characterizing climatechanges at these stations over the three studied periods.In the central and southern parts of the forest-steppe zone of the Russian Plain in the Voronezh region, long-termobservation data from the Voronezh and Kamennaya Steppe weather stations indicate a steady warming trend in allmonths of the year from 1961 to 2023. The annual norms of temperature and precipitation for the period of 1961–2023were 6.7–6.9 °С and 512 – 585 mm, respectively. Climatic conditions at both stations were practically identical. Theannual precipitation at the Kamennaya Steppe weather station was 14% lower than at the Voronezh station. The relativeinterannual variability of precipitation at both stations was practically identical. No regular statistically significant changesin annual precipitation totals were observed at the stations. There were only purely random fluctuations of precipitationtotals from year-to-year near their climatic multiyear averages.