NORTH CAUCASUS: DIAGNOSTICS AND FORECASTS OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE THIRD DECADE OF THE XXI CENTURY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17072/2218-1067-2024-3-106-115Keywords:
North Caucasus; risk factors; political and administrative stability; ethnopolitical security; socio-economic development; dynamics of regional development; forecast for the development of the North Caucasus Fed-eral DistrictAbstract
The study examines the dynamics of the regional development of the North Caucasus in the last 10-13 years. The authors analyze the trends of risk factors and focus on their classification according to the degree of destructive influence on regional development. The paper presents the following hierarchy of risk factors: risks to political and administrative stability, threats to ethnopolitical security, and challenges to socioeconomic development. The prioritization of risks in the political and administrative sphere is due to the low efficiency of regional management as well as to the archaization of the socio-political structure of regional societies. In the context of aggravation of geopolitical confrontation and the persistence of problems in the social sphere of the North Caucasus, the threats to ethnopolitical security are increasing. The North Caucasus region needs more than a slight decrease in the socio-economic challenges it faces to develop sustainably. The study concludes that the current moderate scenario of the regional situation cannot be prolonged for the next 3-5 years due to the increase of risks in most spheres of life; the forecast should be specified as a moderately negative scenario. The likelihood that some of the republics of the region would return to the negative scenario is increasing.References
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