SPATIAL CORRELATION IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF MULTI-ETHNIC AND CONFLICT ZONES WITHIN THE POST-SOVIET REGION
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17072/2218-1067-2024-1-5-16Keywords:
post-Soviet space; ethnic identity; ethnic groups; ethnicity; ethnopolitics; conflict potentialAbstract
The thesis that there is a direct correlation between ethnic composition and the frequency of conflicts on the territory in question has become widespread in ethno-political studies. At the same time, the post-Soviet space is marked by a complex ethnic structure and high conflict potential. A regression model allows us to come closer to answering the question of whether ethnicity is a determinant of the emergence of conflicts in the post-Soviet space. Yet the model is quite ambiguous due to the diversity of the sample of regions taken as the unit of analysis. While interpreting the results, we cannot conclude that there is a statistically significant correlation coefficient. Changing the range of observations and narrowing the subjects under consideration to those with median conflict rate shows an improvement in the Pearson's coefficient. The calculation of spatial autocorrelation for certain indicators, given the spatial lag, also fails to yield statistically significant results. This suggests a lack of correlation at the ethnic macro-region level.References
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