Fridge vs. TV: economic voting in the 2016 Duma elections in Russia
Keywords:
2016 Duma election, economic voting, United Russia, crisisAbstract
The project aims to test the concept of economic voting in the 2016 Duma elec-tions in Russia. The key idea is to find an explanation how the changes in the standard of living over the previous five years had affected the support for the “party of power”. According to the standard theory of economic voting, voters re-ward the government for economic growth and punish it for economic crisis. However, the accession of Crimea and the Ukrainian crisis have caused the opposite ef-fect: the rise of patriotism and the trust in the current political regime and in presi-dent Vladimir Putin personally. Using the OLS method, the authors test the impact of various indicators on the share of votes gained by the United Russia party across the regions. They state that social and economic predictors matter, but in a theoretically unexpected way: poor regions reward the government. The effect may be called a “poverty trap”.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17072/2218-1067-2017-4-137-155References
Анохина Н. В., Мелешкина Е. Ю. Итоги голосования и электоральное поведение. М., 2002. [Anokhina N. V., Meleshkina E. Yu. Voting results and electoral behavior. Moscow, 2002].
Гельман В.Я. Из огня да в полымя: российская политика после СССР. БХВ-Петербург. 2013. [Gel’man V. Ya. Out of the frying pan into the fire: Russian politics after the USSR. St. Petersburg, 2013].
Инфографика «Выборы в Госдуму−2016» [Электронный ресурс] // Сетевое издание «РИА Новости». [Graphics “Elections to the State Duma, 2016” // RIA Novosti].
История выборов в Государственную Думу 1993−2011 гг. [Электронный ресурс] // Сайт дума11.ру. [The history of the elections to the State Duma 1993−2011 // Web-site duma11.ru].
Калинин К.О. Социетальные размежевания и электоральное поведение в России (1993−2003 гг.) //Общественные науки и современность. 2006. №. 5. С. 35−49. [Kalinin K. O. Societal delimitation and electoral behavior in Russia (1993−2003) / / Social Sciences and Modernity. 2006. No. 5. P. 35−49].
Коргунюк Ю.Г. Региональная карта электоральных размежеваний по итогам выборов 2011 г. // Журнал политической философии и социологии политики «Полития. Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз». 2014. №. 3 (74). [Korgunuk Yu. G. Regional map of electoral cleavages at 2011 State Duma elections // Journal of Political Philosophy and Sociology of Politics "Politeia". 2014. No. 3 (74)].
Кынев А.В. Российские выборы−2016: предсказуемая кампания с непредсказуемыми последствиями // Неприкосновенный запас. Дебаты о политике и культуре. 2016. №. 6 (110). С. 57−74. [Kynev A. V. Russian elections2016: predictable campaign with unpredictable consequences //NZ. Debates on politics and culture. 2016. No. 6 (110). P. 57−74].
Нарезка избирательных округов столкнулась с сопротивлением в Госдуме [Электронный ресурс] // Мария Макутина. Сайт РБК. 22 сентября 2015. URL: http://www.rbc.ru/politics/22/09/2015/5601352a9a79477cc994337a (дата обращения: 08.05.2017). [Delimitation came up against the resistance of the State Duma. 22.09.2015. Available at: http://www.rbc.ru/politics/22/09/2015/5601352a9a79477cc994337a (accessed 08.05.2017)]
Петухов В.В., Седова Н.Н. Внутренние угрозы vs внешние угрозы для России: динамика общественных настроений // Власть. 2015. №. 6. [Petukhov V. V., Sedova N. N. The internal threats vs external threats to Russia: the dynamics of public opinion // The Power (Vlast’). 2015. No. 6].
Туровский Р.Ф. Электоральное пространство России: от навязанной национализации к новой регионализации? // Журнал политической философии и социологии политики «Полития. Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз». 2012. №. 3 (66). [Turovsky R. F. Electoral space of Russia: from imposed nationalization towards new regionalization? // Journal of Political Philosophy and Sociology of Politics "Politia". 2012. No. 3 (66)].
Щербак А. Н., Сенников Е. В., Лисовский Т. А. Economic Voting in the 2011−12 Russian Elections // Вестник Пермского университета. Серия Политология. 2013. Т. 4. С. 168−183. [Shcherbak A. N., Sennikov E. V., Lisovsky T. A. Economic Voting at the Elections of 2011−12 //Review of Political Science. 2013. No. 4. P. 168−183].
Щербак А.Н. Экономический рост и итоги думских выборов 2003 г. // Третий электоральный цикл в России. 2003. Т. 2004. С. 196−216. [Shcherbak A.N. Economic growth and the results of the Duma elections of 2003 // The third electoral cycle in Russia. 2003. T. 2004. P. 196−216].
D'Elia J., Norpoth H. Winning with a bad economy //Presidential Studies Quarterly. 2014. Vol. 44. No. 3. P. 467−483.
Gel'man V. The Politics of Fear: How the Russian Regime Confronts Its Opponents //Russian Politics & Law. 2015. Vol. 53. No. 5−6. P. 6−26.
Gomez B.T., Wilson J.M. Cognitive heterogeneity and economic voting: A comparative analysis of four democratic electorates //American Journal of Political Science. 2006. Vol. 50. No. 1. P. 127−145.
Goodnow R., Moser R. G., Smith T. Ethnicity and electoral manipulation in Russia // Electoral Studies. 2014. Vol. 36. P. 15−27.
Hale H. E. Explaining machine politics in Russia's regions: Economy, ethnicity, and legacy //Post-Soviet Affairs. 2003. Vol. 19. No. 3. P. 228−263.
Inglehart R., Welzel C. Modernization, cultural change, and democracy: The human development sequence. Cambridge University Press, 2005.
Marx P. The insider-outsider divide and economic voting: Testing a new theory with German electoral data // Socio-Economic Review. 2016. Vol. 14. No. 1. P. 97−118.
Treisman D. After the deluge: Regional crises and political consolidation in Russia. University of Michigan Press, 2001.
White A. C. How ethnicity matters in Russian elections: ethnic minorities and support for the United Russia party //Eurasian Geography and Economics. 2015. Vol. 56. No. 5. P. 524−546.
White A. C., Saikkonen I. A. L. More Than a Name? Variation in Electoral Mobilisation of Titular and Non-Titular Ethnic Minorities in Russian National Elections // Ethnopolitics. 2016. P. 1−21.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
The author grants the Publisher of the journal (Perm State University) the right to use their article in the journal, as well as to include the text of the abstract, the full text of the article and information about authors in the "Russian Science Citation Index" (RSCI).
The author agrees to the processing of personal data.
The right to use the journal as a whole belongs to the Publisher and acts indefinitely on the territory of the Russian Federation and beyond in accordance with cl. 1260 of the Russian Federation Civil Code.
There is no author's fee paid for providing the above rights by the author.
The author of the article included in the journal retains the exclusive right to it, regardless of the Publisher's right to use the journal as a whole:
a. The authors retain their copyrights to the article and transfer the right of the first publication along with the article to the journal, while also licensing it on the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which allows others to distribute this article with the obligatory indication of authorship of the article and reference to the original publication in this journal.
b. The authors retain the right to enter into separate, additional contractual agreements for the non-exclusive dissemination of the version of the text published by this journal (for example, post it in a university archive or publish it in a book), with reference to the original publication in this journal.
c. d. Authors are allowed to post their text on the Internet (for example, in a university archive or on their personal website) before and during the review process by this journal, as this can lead to a fruitful discussion and to higher number of the references to this published work (Please refer to The Effect of Open Access).
Submission of an article by the author implies that they agree for it to be used by the Publisher on the above conditions and to be included in the RSCI system. It also implicates that the author is aware of the terms of its use. The information about the author sent to the Publisher, including by e-mail, is also considered as such consent.
The editorial board posts the full text of the article on the Perm State University site: http://www.psu.ru and in the OJS system at http://press.psu.ru
The publication fee is not collected and fees are not paid. The author's copy is sent to the author to the address provided by them.
