THE TAIWAN ISSUE WITHIN THE LOGIC OF THE CONFLICT SPIRAL: INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL FACTORS OF ESCALATION
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17072/2218-1067-2025-4-112-121Keywords:
PRC, Taiwan, Republic of China, USA, Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, unipolar world, multipolar world, Chinese Dream, securityAbstract
The Taiwan issue remains a key destabilizing factor in East Asia. The rise of the PRC is closely linked to the CCP’s plan for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The 2022 White Paper emphasized Xi Jinping’s thesis that this rejuvenation cannot be achieved without reunification with Taiwan. Beijing is therefore increasingly alarmed by Taipei’s departure from the "One China" policy. Since 2016, the Democratic Progressive Party has pursued de-Sinicization and strengthened ties with the United States. At the same time, regional dynamics show that the status quo established among the United States, the PRC, and the Republic of China in the 1980s is losing relevance. Washington has expanded arms sales and military exercises with Taiwan, while Beijing has responded by intensifying political, economic, and military measures. This interaction produces a conflict spiral, reflecting the interplay of Taiwan’s domestic transformations and external pressures. The aim of this study is to examine how internal and external factors jointly shape this conflict spiral, which keeps the Taiwan issue at the center of regional security. Using quantitative and comparative methods, the findings suggest that the root of cross-Strait tensions lies in the complex interconnection of domestic identity shifts on the island and international competition.References
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