THE EFFECTS OF MASS REDISTRICTING ON INCUMBENT VOTE SHARE IN REGIONAL LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17072/2218-1067-2025-3-61-70Keywords:
redistricting, incumbency effect, electoral studies, regional elections, electoral autocracyAbstract
Redistricting, as the process of revising electoral district boundaries, can have a significant impact on electoral processes, including in autocratic regimes with electoral institutions. This article examines the political consequences of electoral reform carried out in several regions of Russia over the past few years. Using the author's developed web-scraping algorithm for the GAS Vybory websites, data on voting results in regional legislative elections from sixteen regions were collected. Between 2019 and 2023, the number of seats allocated under the majority voting system increased in these regions, requiring massive redistricting to create new constituencies. This created favorable conditions for studying the political consequences of large-scale redistricting. Using data on the results of elections to regional parliaments, the degree of influence that mass redistricting has on the electoral results of incumbents was statistically significant. Still, the scale of the effect is not enough to alter the outcomes of elections, so we conclude that redistricting did not have a noticeable effect on the electoral stability of incumbent parliamentarians.References
Гайворонский, Ю. О. (2020) ‘Эффекты взаимовлияния в условиях смешанной избирательной системы на федеральных парламентских выборах в Россииʼ, Вестник Пермского университета. Политология, 14(1), сс. 18‒28. [Gaivoronsky, Yu. O. (2021) ‘Interaction effects in mixed-member electoral systems: evidence from Russia’s federal parliamentary elections’ [Effecty vzaumovlianiya sistemy na federalnykh vyborakh v Rossii], Bulletin of Perm University. Political Science, 14(1), pp. 18‒28, (In Russ.)]. DOI: 10.17072/2218-1067-2020-1-18-28.
Ansolabehere, S., Snyder, J. M., Stewart, C., (2000) ‘Old voters, new voters, and the personal vote: using redistricting to measure the incumbency advantage’, American Journal of Political Science, 44, pp. 17–34. DOI: 10.2307/2669290.
Beaulieu, E. (2014) Electoral Protest and Democracy in the Developing World. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 244 p.
Blaydes L. (2008) Competition without democracy: elections and distributive politics in Mubarak’s Egypt: PhD thesis. Los Angeles: University of California. 290 p.
Boix, C., Svolik, M. (2008) ‘The foundation of limited authoritarian government: institutions and power-sharing in dictatorships’, Their Governance and Social Consequences Conf. Princeton: Princeton University. 47 p.
Boix, C., Svolik, М. (2013) ‘The Foundations of Limited Authoritarian Government: Institutions, Commitment, and Power-Sharing in Dictatorships’, Journal of Politics, 75 (2), pp. 300–316. DOI: 10.1017/S00223816130.
Cox, G., Kats, J. N. (1996). ‘Why did the incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections grow?’ American Journal of Political Science, 40 (2), pp. 478–497. DOI: 10.2307/2111633.
Fenno, R. (1978) Homestyle: House members in their districts. Boston, MA: Little, Brown. 300 p.
Fujimura, N. (2022) ‘The Trade-Off between Equal Representation and Electoral Participation: The Effect of Redistricting on Voter Turnout’, Representation, 58(4), pp. 547–563. DOI: 10.1080/00344893.2021.1964584.
Gandhi, J. (2008) Political Institutions under Dictatorship. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 258 p.
Gandhi, J., Lust-Okar, E. (2009) ‘Elections under Authoritarianism’, Annual Review of Political Science, 12(1), pp. 403–22. DOI: 10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.060106.095434.
Geddes, B. (1999) ‘Authoritarian Breakdown: Empirical Test of a Game-Theoretic Argument’, 95th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September, Atlanta. 23 p.
Gelman, F., King, G. (1994) ‘Enhancing Democracy Through Legislative Redistricting’, American Political Science Review, 88(3), pp. 541–59. DOI: 10.2307/2944794.
Grofman, B. (1985) ‘Criteria for Districting a Social Science Perspective’, UCLA Law Review, 33, pp. 77–184.
Hayes, D., McKee, S. C. (2009). ‘The Participatory Effects of Redistricting’, American Journal of Political Science, 53(4), pp. 1006–1023. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00413.x.
Hunt, Ch. R. (2018) ‘When does redistricting matter? Changing conditions and their effects on voter turnout’, Electoral Studies, 54, pp. 128–138. DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2018.05.007.
Kenichi, A. (2020) ‘When do political parties benefit from incumbents' personal votes? Comparative analysis across different electoral systems’, Electoral Studies, 68. DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102221.
Miller, M. K. (2017) ‘The strategic origins of electoral authoritarianism’, British Journal of Political Science, 50, pp. 1–28. DOI: 10.1017/S0007123417000394.
Schedler, A. (2006) Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers. 267 p.
Simpser, A. (2005) Making Votes not Count: Strategic Incentives for Electoral Corruption: PhD thesis. Department of Political Science, Stanford University. 340 p.
Wong, S. H. W. (2019) ‘Gerrymandering in Electoral Autocracies: Evidence from Hong Kong’, British Journal of Political Science, 49(2), pp. 579–610. DOI: 10.1017/S0007123416000685.
Yoshinaka, A., Murphy, C. (2011). ‘The Paradox of Redistricting: How Partisan Mapmakers Fos¬ter Competition but Disrupt Representation’, Political Research Quarterly, 64(2), pp. 435–47. DOI: 10.1177/106591290935576
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
The author grants the Publisher of the journal (Perm State University) the right to use their article in the journal, as well as to include the text of the abstract, the full text of the article and information about authors in the "Russian Science Citation Index" (RSCI).
The author agrees to the processing of personal data.
The right to use the journal as a whole belongs to the Publisher and acts indefinitely on the territory of the Russian Federation and beyond in accordance with cl. 1260 of the Russian Federation Civil Code.
There is no author's fee paid for providing the above rights by the author.
The author of the article included in the journal retains the exclusive right to it, regardless of the Publisher's right to use the journal as a whole:
a. The authors retain their copyrights to the article and transfer the right of the first publication along with the article to the journal, while also licensing it on the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which allows others to distribute this article with the obligatory indication of authorship of the article and reference to the original publication in this journal.
b. The authors retain the right to enter into separate, additional contractual agreements for the non-exclusive dissemination of the version of the text published by this journal (for example, post it in a university archive or publish it in a book), with reference to the original publication in this journal.
c. d. Authors are allowed to post their text on the Internet (for example, in a university archive or on their personal website) before and during the review process by this journal, as this can lead to a fruitful discussion and to higher number of the references to this published work (Please refer to The Effect of Open Access).
Submission of an article by the author implies that they agree for it to be used by the Publisher on the above conditions and to be included in the RSCI system. It also implicates that the author is aware of the terms of its use. The information about the author sent to the Publisher, including by e-mail, is also considered as such consent.
The editorial board posts the full text of the article on the Perm State University site: http://www.psu.ru and in the OJS system at http://press.psu.ru
The publication fee is not collected and fees are not paid. The author's copy is sent to the author to the address provided by them.
