UNDER EXTERNAL SHOCKS: STABILITY OR CHANGE IN MODELS OF MIGRANT INTEGRATION POLICIES IN DEMOCRACIES
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17072/2218-1067-2026-3-60-75Keywords:
migrant integration policy, external shocks, configurational analysis, uzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), institutional and policy resilience, politicization of migrationAbstract
The article examines variation in national models of migrant integration policies across democratic EU member states in response to external shocks, including the 2015 migration crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. It argues that exogenous shocks generate pressures whose effects are mediated by domestic institutional, political, and socio-economic conditions. The study draws on several theoretical concepts. Its meta-theoretical framework is formed by Douglass North’s idea of institutional inertia, George Tsebelis’s thesis on the possibility of changing the status quo, and James Hollifield’s concept of the “liberal paradox” concerning the structural contradiction between the interests of a liberal economy and the need to ensure national security. The empirical analysis was conducted using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA): the sample consisted of data on 25 EU countries. Three causal mechanisms of change in migrant integration policy are empirically identified and analytically substantiated: state resource capacity, institutional mediation, and structural necessity. The authors conclude that a state’s response to an external shock is configurational in nature, while differences in policy trajectories are explained by the specific features of the domestic structure of opportunities and constraints.
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