ASSESSMENT OF WATER CONSUMPTION IN THE RUSSIAN PART OF THE TRANSBOUNDARY URAL RIVER BASIN FOR THE PERIOD UNTIL 2035

Abstract

The article aims to obtain forecast estimates of water consumption for domestic water use, productionand irrigation needs as well as of total water consumption (water intake) in the Russian part of the transboundary UralRiver for the short and medium term. The study was carried out on the basis of systematic and information-analyticalapproaches with the use of methods of logical and comparative analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis of statisticaldata. Methodological approaches to forecasting water consumption are described. Due to population decline, predicted by demographic forecast, and the ongoing reduction in specific water consumption per person, by 2035 the volume of domestic water use will decrease by 22%. The paper provides summary dataon the commissioning of irrigated lands in 2010–2021 in three constituent entities of the Russian Federation located inthe Ural basin. Due to the significant increase in irrigated areas and a slight increase in irrigation standards because ofincreasing aridity of the climate, water consumption for irrigation needs will increase from 20.7 million m3in 2020 to 35million m3in 2025 and 78 million m3in 2035. According to the adopted documents, by 2035 electricity production in theregions of the basin will increase by 12–18%. The water turnover coefficient will also increase. The predominant influence of recycled water supply will lead to a 3-fold reduction in water consumption for production needs by 2035. Ingeneral, in the Russian part of the Ural River basin, the total volume of water consumption (water intake) will significantlydecrease by 2025, and less significantly – in the period 2025–2035. The maximum reduction in the water intake volumewill occur in the Orenburg region.